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Zogby International poll predicts a big win for Kerry Kerry 311EV versus Bush�s 213 EV predicted At 6:00 p.m. when some polling places were closing in the East Coat, Zogby International Poll, which correctly called the election four years ago in 2000, had given their updated poll numbers. I have no clue whether the poll number came from telephone calls or from exit polling. According to the latest poll, Kerry is winning the bulk of the electoral votes. Remember that any candidate who will win 271 EV will become the president in late January 2005.
Zogby International poll had announced in the midday that there will be some surprise in the election and he suggested that we come back to his site at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time. I visited the site at the specified time but they did not upgrade the site. At 6:00 p.m. they did and what I saw was unreal! It almost look like an electoral landslide.
The future markets in America knew what was happening. The stock market sharply reacted to it already. The Bloomberg dot com reported the following piece on online futures after poll reports: �Traders reversed bets that George W. Bush would win the U.S. presidential election after Web sites posted what they said were exit polls showing John Kerry leading in battleground states including Florida and Ohio. Contracts betting Bush would win plunged to 28.5 from 57 and Kerry futures jumped to 71 from 43, according to Intrade, an electronic exchange based in Dublin known by its Web site TradeSports.com. Winning contracts climb to 100, paying out $10 on Intrade. Losing contracts fall to zero and expire worthless. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost most of its advance, Treasuries erased losses and the dollar pared its gain against the euro after the reports appeared. ``These futures may not predict, but they sure do react,'' said Barry Ritholtz, market strategist for brokerage Maxim Group LLC in New York. ``I thought the Kerry futures were a relatively good bet after seeing those enormous lines. That's never good for an incumbent.'' Internet gossip columnist Matt Drudge posted what he said were early exit poll results from 14 states at about 2:45 p.m. Washington time showing Kerry held a lead over Bush in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Although Drudge took the numbers off his Web site about 20 minutes later, other Internet sites, including Slate.com, have similar figures. Now here is the Zogby Report. Please remember that this is just a preliminary report based probably on exit poll. The final confirmation to this will come from late tonight. Therefore, stay tuned.
------------------------------ Dr.
A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from
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