Rebuttal : Lincoln and Kennedy: Bound by coincidence
Avijit Roy
In response to : http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/message/5021
[Shayon is a 11 year old school kid, the youngest participant in this forum]
Dear Sayon,
I welcome you in MM for coming out with such an interesting post. However, I think you are still quite young and very enthusiastic and like other cute little children you got astonished while you found some miraculous coincidence between Lincoln and John Kennedy in your library books. But I know, When you will grow older and will develop your skeptical mind, you will definitely perceive that Most improbable coincidences likely result from play of random events. The very nature of randomness assures that combing random data will yield some pattern.
Let us now take a look on Abraham Lincoln and Kennedy's miraculous coincidence through a skeptic's eye :
Abraham Lincoln and John Kennedy
It is always possible to comb random data to find some regularities. A well-known qualitative example is the comparison of coincidences in the lives of Abraham Lincoln and John Kennedy, two presidents with seven letters in their last names, and elected to office 100 years apart, 1860 and 1960. Both were assassinated on Friday in the presence of their wives, Lincoln in Ford's theater and Kennedy in an automobile made by the Ford motor company. Both assassins went by three names: John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald, with fifteen letters in each complete name. Oswald shot Kennedy from a warehouse and fled to a theater, and Booth shot Lincoln in a theater and fled to a barn (a kind of warehouse). Both succeeding vice-presidents were southern Democrats and former senators named Johnson (Andrew and Lyndon), with thirteen letters in their names and born 100 years apart, 1808 and 1908.
But if we compare other relevant attributes we fail to find coincidences. Lincoln and Kennedy were born and died in different months, dates, and states, and neither date is 100 years apart. Their ages at death were different, as were the names of their wives. Of course, had any of these features corresponded for the two presidents, it would have been included in the list of "mysterious" coincidences. For any two people with reasonably eventful lives it is possible to find coincidences between them. Two people meeting at a party often find some striking coincidence between them, but what it is -- birthdate, hometown, etc. -- is not predicted in advance.
Here are some comments made by Kevin T. Kilty from rational point of view on some miraculous cosmological "co-incidence" between Lincoln and Kennedy ( http://www.kilty.com/l_and_k.htm ).
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860.
John F. Kennedy was elected President in 1960.
Comment
This is, of course, no more remarkable than two victims of assassination being elected 96 years apart or 104. One hundred is just such a nice, round number that people see extreme significance in it--much like they did the year 2000, for instance. There are many people who have been elected president 100 years apart. And each being assassinated doesn't deepen this coincidence one iota, because we chose two assassinated leaders and then found that by coincidence they were elected 100 years apart.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Abraham Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846.
John F. Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946.
Comment
Obviously people might think that both men entering politics 100 years apart, and then being elected president also 100 years apart is a great coincidence. However, when two people are separated by about X years in history, it seems very likely, in fact more likely than not, that major milestones in their lives are separated by roughly the same increment as well. This is entirely expected. At least it is more expected than their being elected to congress 100 years apart, and being elected president 150 years apart, because one of them would have been in congress as long as Strom Thurmond. The parallel in political careers diverges here, for Kennedy won a Senate seat in 1952, while Lincoln lost his Senate bid in 1858.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
The names Lincoln and Kennedy each contain seven letters.
Comment
OK, and I might add that their successor's names also had 7 letters. Perhaps seven letter last names are quite common.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both were particularly concerned with civil rights.
Comment
It would be more amazing if they hadn't been concerned with civil rights, because civil rights were THE SOCIAL CONCERNS of the day in both instances. During both of these time periods the country was nearly torn to pieces over the issue. In fact, to characterize the Lincoln Presidency as being "particularly concerned with civil rights" seems a comic understatement.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both wives lost their children while living in the White House.
Comment
This is a muddied statement that ought to read "Both their wives lost a child while living in the White House." In fact the Lincoln's lost three of their four children before the children reached adulthood. The death of children was not uncommon at the time. I am unable to find information regarding the Kennedy child, but I recall this being a miscarriage, which is not only surprisingly common, but makes the two losses not really comparable.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both Presidents were shot on a Friday.
Comment
I originally thought this was a mistake through a mistaken calculation of weekdays. I parodied the coincidence with, "This would be an excellent coincidence if it weren't for Kennedy being shot on a Thursday." However, a Mr. Goldman wrote to point out my error and I stand corrected. It's nice to see that someone reads this stuff. I just wish people would write for reasons other than to point out my errors. Ah, then Mr. Goldman wrote back to explain that Lincoln was actually shot on Thursday and died on Friday, whereas Kennedy was shot and died on Friday. Once again the full story has not quite the parallel that the simple story suggests.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both Presidents were shot in the head.
Comment
When someone is trying to kill a person, they will likely shoot them in the head. It is more effective than shooting them in the leg, for instance. So this is entirely expected.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Lincoln's secretary was named Kennedy.
Kennedy's secretary was named Lincoln.
Comment
This is quite difficult to analyze. How many secretaries and assistants did each have? Did Kennedy choose Lincoln as secretary from a pool of applicants because of his name? Sometimes coincidence is not all it seems. In fact, Robert Lincoln the eldest son of Abraham Lincoln, was saved from a nasty accident by J. Wilkes Booth's brother. Yet another cosmic connection? Most recently a Mr. Patrick Vincent wrote to tell me that his research on the web turned up evidence that Lincoln had no secretary named Kennedy. The interesting story of this myth is told at the web site synnergy . Another alleged coincidence dies.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both were assassinated by Southerners.
Comment
J. Wilkes Booth was born in Maryland. I suppose that if one were trying to force a cosmic connection, then Maryland might pass muster as a southern state. It was in the Union, however. The best a person could argue is that Wilkes was a southern sympathizer maybe.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both were succeeded by Southerners.
Comment
OK, granted; but it isn't as though each man having a southerner as Vice President was a random occurence. Each was a northern politician trying to win an election by choosing a southern running mate. Things that people do by design are not coincidences.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both successors were named Johnson.
Comment
It isn't as though Johnson is a strange last name.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Andrew Johnson, who succeeded Lincoln, was born in 1808.
Lyndon Johnson, who succeeded Kennedy, was born in 1908.
Comment
There is that 100 year separation again.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
John Wilkes Booth, who assassinated Lincoln, was born in 1839.
Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated Kennedy, was born in 1939.
Comment
They are trying for the 100 year thing again! It didn't work this time, though. Booth was actually born in 1838. What I found interesting about researching Lee Harvey Oswald's age is the misinformation regarding it in web documents.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both assassins were known by their three names.
Comment
A biography of Booth that I found on the world wide web suggested that he was known as J. Wilkes Booth. A Mr. Vsevolod Onyshkevych wrote to me and advanced the theory that killers are often known by their full (three) names and that this may be applied to each after the fact. He also provided a list of stunning length of the names of killers found from biographies on the web. Yes, Mr. Onyshkevych, the web is full of stange information.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both names are comprised of fifteen letters.
Comment
What a bore I'm going to be here. Let us suppose that the length of a name is a random variable (Poisson perhaps) where the probability of very long or very short names is small and the expected length is about 5 letters. Then, the distribution of the summed lengths of three names is going to be sharply peaked at 15 letters. In other words, this might be common. I can think of 5 members of my immediate family who meet this test also.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Lincoln was shot at the theatre named 'Kennedy'.
Kennedy was shot in a car called 'Lincoln'.
Comment
I had trouble believing what I was reading here, because I recalled distinctly from High School or earlier that Lincoln was shot at Ford's Theatre. Practically any person with high school education would recall this fact. Moreover, this seems to be a corruption of the original list of coicindences in which this one was "Lincoln was shot in a theatre built by Ford. Kennedy was shot in a car built by Ford."
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Booth ran from the theatre and was caught in a warehouse.
Oswald ran from a warehouse and was caught in a theatre.
Comment
Well, I could explain this coincidence as resulting from the shear number of theaters and warehouses, but the story of Booth's escape is so complex that to characterize it as "ran from a theatre and was caught in a warehouse" skirts the suburbs of misrepresentation. Booth was ultimately caught in a tobacco shed on a farm, which hardly qualifies as a warehouse.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Booth and Oswald were assassinated before their trials.
Comment
Booth died in a gunbattle, so reports of his assassination are highly exaggerated.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
This is the climactic last alleged fact that the author decribed as "the kicker."
A week before Lincoln was shot, he was in Monroe, Maryland.
A week before Kennedy was shot, he was in Marilyn Monroe.
Comment
I was pretty sure at this point that the whole e-mail was a joke. Nevertheless, I have gone this far, and I may as well finish. Marilyn Monroe died over one year before Kennedy's assassination. Once again Mr. Onyshkevych has written to tell me that there is no Monroe, Maryland known to the U.S. Post Office at least. Perhaps there was in 1865.
Now you see Shayon, most of the miraculous co-incidences are actually not miraculous. They are wide-spread lies and just wishful exaggeration. Then again question comes why do actually people spread lies and exaggeration ? It is clearly explained by Prabir Ghosh in his famous book "Olukik noy, Loukik" (Nothing supernatural: Part-1):
Now, as a rational being, let us try to open our mind. Let us try to be more skeptic, let us try to be more logical. Let us try to be a real "Mukto-mona" by taking the following oath :
You will certainly do it from now on, right Shayon ? :-)
A warm regards to you..
Avijit
The article is kept in : http://humanists.net/avijit/rationalism/rebuttal_lin_kenn_avi.htm
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Re: Kennedy's and Lincoln's strange connection
By Sherry Holmes
In response to http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/message/5021
Shayon,
It is very easy to convince others of bizzare coincidences by using a logical flaw called "back-calculating the probability". It is used frequently by creationists in the evolution v. creation argument. A creationist will look at a protein and say to you, "This protein contains 600 amino acids. If any of these amino acids were different, this protein would not function properly. Since there are 20 possible amino acids, the probability of this particular configuration is one in 20 to the 600th power. That is a very small probability, in fact one might say that it is too small to be a coincidence and therefore there must have been divine guidance. To someone who has not been taught to think critically, this might seem to be a pretty convincing argument, but think about it this way....
There are 445 members in this group and each of us has a birthday. Mine is August 6. There is a one in 365 chance that this is your birthday. Now think about this--the chance that a group of people would have all of the birthdays that this group does is one in 365 to the 445 power. It would be pretty much impossible for a group of people to have this set of birthdays, right--yet it just happened, right here. No divine guidance. No bizzarre coincidences.
This may not have anything to do specifically with the Lincoln/Kennedy story, but it is an example of how statistics and coincidence can be used against you if you don't know how to look at them. Many fanatics are masters of persuasion. Those who are not armed with knowledge are easy prey for these people. If there are any critical thinking or logic classes available to you, they are not a waste of time. When you find something that is just too amazing to be true, keep searching for answers and you will be amazed at what you find. I am to this day convinced that there is a logical explanation for everything, even if it has not been figured out yet.
Sherry
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Rebuttal : Lincoln and Kennedy: Bound by coincidence
Aparthib Zaman.
In response to : http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/message/5021
I would like to discuss some generalities relating to
coincidences and "strange connections" that would apply to all coincidences,
not just "Kennedy's and Lincoln's strange connection" that Shayon's post
referred to. I must admit that Shayon only presented some interesting facts of
coincidences (Although some of those "facts" may be distorted as Avijit's
research has shown) not drawn any conclusions from it. My discussion is
general and applies to those who may "see" some divine connection in those
coincidences.
The desire to see divine connections or design in mundane occurrences of
coincidences is a strong human instinct arising out of a yearning for a world
beyond this observable one and rooted in the desire for life after death in
order to find a meaning of this life and to move on. This yearning was behind
Jung's theory of Synchronicity, which is nothing but a pseudo-scientific
mish-mash, although in his desperation he even tried to enlist some help from
his friends well-versed in Quantum Physics. He tried to link an aspect of
Quantum Mechanics called Quantum non-locality (Einstein called it spooky) with
apparent connections between human experiences. A case of pure quackery like
astrology. Quantum non-locality has many alternate scientific explanations and
is not "spooky" anymore, although it still remains the ultimate
epistemological intellectual challenge to physicists.
Anyway, the fact is that all coincidences appear to be strange connections to
many because of (a)
improper understanding of statistics
(b) selective bias of human mind,
and
(c) sometimes due to succumbing to
intentional manipulations of facts.
Misunderstanding of statistics can lead one to view a
not-so-unlikely occurrence as very unlikely. Selective bias leads one
to forget and ignore the majority of events, all of which are individually
very unlikely, not treat them as coincidences or strange connections but only
the ones that appear to be interesting to the human mind.
For example, if we roll ten dice the likelihood of getting the sequence
6526553214 is the same as 6666666666 both of which are equally likely and also
very unlikely to occur in one trial.
(1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6) But the former will not catch
anyone's attention, the latter will.
When one is dealt a bridge hand of thirteen cards, the probability of being
dealt that particular hand is less than one in 600 billion. Still, it would be
absurd for someone to be dealt a hand, examine it carefully, calculate that
the probability of getting it is less than one in 600 billion, and then
conclude that he must not have been dealt that very hand because it is so very
improbable or that it must be a divine connection for him to get this rare
hand!
Another important aspect of probability that is not appreciated by many is
that time and numbers play a very important role in statistics. A very
unlikely event will eventually occur given enough time. Or, equivalently, if
many trials are conducted for an unlikely event simultaneously, one of the
trials will materialize the very unlikely. Those who have studied statistical
Physics will recognize this in the Ergodic Hypothesis, a very important
concept. Sometimes we are amazed that out the billions of known stars and
their planets only Sun harbours wonderful life forms and only on the planet
earth. Is that a surprise? Life requires a sensitive range of conditions of
temperature, gravity, density of atmosphere, right distance from star, right
tilt of the axis, etc., for life to evolve. Only earth satisifes this
condition. Its like 6X6X6X6X6X6X6X6X6X6 people rolling ten dice at once. One
of them will certainly roll 6666666666. Any surprise? All the billions of
planets are like ten rolled dice. Only one (earth) is 666666666 (i.e., has
conditions suitable for life forms). So here we are, on planet earth wondering
about life. If planet "X", instead, satisfied the conditions of life instead
of earth then we would be on planet "X". But then we would call "X" earth.
It's only a matter of label.
How about the lottery? One lucky person picks the right number. Someone has to
win it if all the numbers are sold out. No divine connection. Yet the winning
person may view it as a divine connection for him to win it. Even if that
lucky person has just lost his home and belongings in a fire that would not
make it any more divine. Because again if anything can happen at all, it will
eventually happen, if one waited long enough. No one who has lost his
belongings in fire has ever won in a lottery before, in million years of human
history, humanity waited long enough for it to happen and finally it did
happen to Mr. X on day Y of Year Z. By the same logic a billionaire may also
someday win a lottery ticket (Talking about carrying coal to Newcastle!)
it would not have any different significance from the former case. No amount
of coincidences of PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE (i.e., natural) events can point to
divine or supernatural connections. Occam's Razor will always point to a
natural explanation through an eventual realization of a very unlikely (but
not impossible) event.
A nuts and bolts calcualtion may help dispel the mystic of strange
coincidences that we sometimes experience in life (Like you were thinking of
an old friend in an airport and then suddenly he appears, approaching you). A
person may have 100 distinct experiences a day. In ten years, for 1000 people
that would mean 4950x3650x1000=18,06750000 pairs of events. So its very likely
that some of those events will be of strange coincidence types to some of
those 1000 persons.
As a final example, let's take the case of "prophetic" dreams. Sometimes a
person "X" dreams of an event and the event takes place soon after the dream.
X sees a divine connection in his dream. Now, consider this. Normal people
have about 25 dreams/night. With 250 million people in US there must be
billions of dreams dreamt everynight and trillions in a year. With so many
dreams, some are bound to match with reality and seem prophetic. It would be
astonishing if there wasn't any (p-55 Schick).
Some may object that the connections do not have to be divine. They could be
natural, but not mere chances. There must be some deep natural (scientific)
connections between them. This is what Jung had hinted at. But that is a
mere "May be". A natural or scientific connection can only be made through
scientific method itself. And science has not found any connections between
such coincidences. Nor is there any need to. All such connections have been
explained nicely through Occam's Razor by probability theory, which is an
important tool of science as well.
I hope to have dispelled some myth and misconceptions about coincidences. I
apologize if I seemed to have ruined any hope for divine supernatural
connection that certainly appears to be a more appealing option. And one can
continue to believe in that. After all, placebos are as effective (or more) a
therapy as real drugs. But if it did inspire a little bit of interest in
critcial thinking then I suggest going further and read the following two
books.
1. How to Think of Weird Things - Theodore Schick &
Lewis Vaugn
2. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its
Consequences - John Allen Paulos.
Thanks.
Aparthib
The article is kept in : http://humanists.net/avijit/rationalism/rebuttal_lin_kenn_aparthib.htm
