Living With Floods And Cyclones by Afroza Begum

Living With Floods And Cyclones

Bangladesh with a territory of 7% only of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin taking the burden of flow of 92% of flood water flowing through her when it is the result of rainfall occurring outside Bangladesh in an area 15 times larger than Bangladesh herself,flood is inevitable

The country is under grip of severe flood inundating about a third of the land and affecting or dislocating about 30 Millions. During April-May this year the country was experiencing hot and dry spells at a magnitude higher than those recorded during few of the previous years�similarly in India and Pakistan, too. Hence it was predictable that it will follow with jet stream of huge amount of moisture coming from Arab Sea and the Bay of Bengal bringing intense rainfalls and monsoon flooding the deltaic plane, the confluence of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin, that constitutes Bangladesh.

Natural disaster, calamities and catastrophes are cohabiting phenomenon of human civilization. Modern science till today can explain the reason of earthquakes but could not find ways and means to forecast its occurrences but catching people with severe strikes unaware and surprised leading to devastating catastrophes of death and destruction. Almost similar phenomenon goes with the Tornados.

Although it is predictable which months of the year are prone to these occurrences but the whim with which the Twisters choose the route, create their width, the speed; striking day, hour or minute of the severe whirlwind funneling off objects from the ground�is impossible to predict. The destruction is unavoidable and inescapable, but death can be escaped only hiding in underground shelters.

But, this is not so in case of floods or cyclones. It is predictable well ahead-- looking and monitoring the changes of temperature, barometric pressure, humidity and directions of the movement of the air carrying the clouds, the movement and melting of the glaciers, rise and fall of water levels in the rivers and the seas of a target area.

After just a few years of independence when the people of Bangladesh was still in rejoicing mood and dreaming of a vibrant and strong �Sonar Bangla�, the sudden flood and famine of 1974 taking lives of thousands, disenchanted and demystified the people so bad�the incumbents failure of disaster management had to face severe criticism and rage of the people giving all abundant chance and ample opportunity to the opposition forces to embarrass and brand the liberators of Bangladesh as failed managers incapable of governing the state to the point of question of viability of existence of independent Bangladesh. We had to swallow with shame, the words of self-assumed diplomatic authorities of the World cursing us as a �basket case�.

It was a tremendous blow to our self-esteem, and more to the enthusiasm of �Sonar Bangla� facing that brute reality of famine and death�demystification of the myth, which we created through years of struggle and the liberation war. The British or the Punjabi�s never believed that we Bengalis can also be warriors to win a war challenging any force how formidable.

The connection between cultural bigotry and political tyranny can also become very close. Commenting on the Bengal famine of the 40�s the great Churchill said that, �The Bengal famine of 1943 was caused by the tendency of the people out there to breed like rabbits.��profoundly affecting the relief efforts during the disastrous famine. Henry Kissinger�s mote claim of terming independent Bangladesh as, �basket case�, created similar negative affect in the incoming relief efforts of the Government.

In 1970, worst cyclone hit the coastal area of Bangladesh taking lives nearly of a million and then the famine of 1974, with all those horrendous pictures of starving skeletons of the living humans or the dead swollen bodies caught in the trees or the sandy beaches printed in the media-- painted, portrayed and flashed to the World the image of a country of cyclones, floods, famines and tropical diseases�indeed a �basket case� full of people �breeding like rabbits�-- a population of relief mongers �born to live only on pity of relief and assistance extended by the international club of the rich countries.

However, the inherent will of the people of Bangladesh to combat, survive and construct an independent Bangladesh was tremendously underestimated then by the international community and even by the neighbours. The trauma of 1974 and the introduction of BAKSAL by the leaderships of war of independence confused and isolated the people creating favourable ground to hatch the conspiracy for the enemies of independence to stage the massacre of 15th August, 3rd and 7th November, 1975.

In spite of all these could not altogether take away the resolute inspiration of the people to overcome the impediments and forge ahead to build the nation to earn the respect of the self-serving pessimists. The later history proves that to be true.

The 1974 famine taught us the first lesson��do not depend on foreign aid or assistance for food and essentials to move the relief operation during flood or cyclone.� Hence, then on from 1975, the priorities of the successive Governments were to construct go-downs for food and relief materials and create a buffer stock.

We learnt, for food we could not depend upon the pledges and promises of the foreign donors for assistance and wait for those assistances, which may come after months or years or may not come at all. So from then on, after each crop, the Government purchased rice or paddies and stored in those go-downs located at each administrative Police Station �even other relief materials at the central relief go-down in Dhaka.

In this way, then on all the successive Governments held stock 2-3 Million Metric Tons of foods as buffer stock all along the year which not only made the Government capable to combat natural disaster but also gave the Government power to intervene into the market in case of regulation of price of food items became necessary.

The second lesson we learnt, �Build shelters.� Multistoried cyclone and flood shelters were built integrating with school, college, and hospital construction programmes. In small towns, the community houses of the local Governments also were turned into multistoried multipurpose shelter units.

The third lesson we learned, �Build coastal embankments and green belts.� Coastal embankments and forestation programmes were implemented at the coastal area to minimize damages occurring due to encroachment of the coast by incoming tidal surges at the time of cyclones.

The fourth lesson we learnt, � build spurs� at the places where the rivers are taking horseshoe bends. A number of river training programmes were implemented to control severe erosions at the most prone areas along the river.

Therefore, the flood of 1988 even was more severe than the flood of 1974-the cyclone of 1991 was more severe than 1970�but the deaths were insignificant reduced to few hundreds not even thousands against prediction of foreign media that millions of deaths shall occur.

During 1998 flood BBC was fearing that at least two millions will die out of starvation, but there was not a single death going hungry or not having received the relief material for food and/or other essentials. The Government�s effort to combat the flood was then later was praised by the World press with notes of surprise.

On the other hand at the end of 1998, Bangladesh, for the first time claimed autarky in food�the country that was plagued with food shortage from its birth and each year had to meet the shortage with food aid from foreign donors. From then on the food aid from foreign sources dropped to nil, and the government held buffer stock for the people to meet any proportion of disaster coming out from flood or cyclone.

Bangladesh is no more a �basket case�, now having US $ 6.421 Billion annual earnings from export, a GDP growth rate of 5.5 % per annum, a saving rate of 24.49% and investment rate of 23.49 % of GDP, Human Development Index trend of increase at the rate of 1.76% per annum between 1975(0.345)-2002(0.509), Gender Related Development Index of 0.499 and Gender Related Income Share is 76% which is even higher than India (50%) or Pakistan (44%).

Similarly, no more �breeding like rabbits��with an annual population growth of 1.5 % even below the World average of 1.6%. UNDP 2004 report has recognized Bangladesh in the list of seven of the best performing list of the countries achieving satisfactory rate of poverty reduction towards achieving Millennium Development Goal (MDG).

Therefore, now when we are in the grip of severe flood today in 2004, the Government can say, �We do not need international relief now, but we shall need assistance for rehabilitation and restoration of damages of the infrastructures caused by the flood, only after the flood water recedes.� There were deaths of a few hundred due to some accidents �but anybody looking the Satellite image of the flood would fear death of millions if this flood would have occurred decades earlier.

Bangladesh is an active delta at the confluence of three major rivers �Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna. Ganges and Brahmaputra have their origin in the Himalayas. Flood is inevitable, and severe flood can always occur in those monsoons when the all these three rivers rise simultaneously.

Geographically Bangladesh is located in the tropical region at the tip of the funnel of Bay of Bengal, one of the largest bays of the Indian Ocean and hence cyclones are normal features of changing seasons in this region from long history of the past found in record. We have to live with these floods and cyclones, and we have to learn how to survive and live with them, with our own experience without hampering the pace and efforts of development.

There is no permanent solution of to do away with the floods or cyclones. It is not necessary to make false promises. Begum Khaleda Zia should refrain from populace lectures when she is falsely promising to the victims of flood that her Government would find and implement permanent solution to do away with the recurring floods. Also she should refrain from stating that, flood brings alluvial soil enhancing fertility of the agricultural lands.

This may be true in seasons of normal monsoons but in seasons of soaring flooding which is a case of this year, the tons of alluvial soil brings disaster to fill the river beds making the rivers erode their banks. She should leave these comments on merits or demerits of flood to be made by the scientists �and this is not her job. The responsibility of the Government is to save lives and hence to see that the relief materials reach the needy smoothly and effectively. For doing this Government should not depend on the administration only but also should integrate the elected public representatives and inspire people�s initiatives.

In this year�s relief operation �the presence of people�s representatives undertaking relief operations and enthusiasm of the various political and socio-cultural humanist initiatives including activities of the NGOs are at very low ebb. It was the result of Governments policy to assert enhanced dependence on Government administration�the reason is unclear.

In any case, this is not a prudent policy, because may be the initiative taken through the Government machinery may be enough at this point of time but if the situation worsens �since there is possibility of slow receding of flood water due to rise of sea level with the effect of full moon and also a second spell is being forecasted �and if that come by then the Government�s lone effort to raise and distribute relief materials through administrative channels only, may not suffice.

Hence, it would be advisable to integrate the elected people�s representatives, the NGOs and the socio-cultural organizations and getting them engaged by the side of the Government in the task of relief mobilization as well as distribution.

Although, it appears there is no scarcity of food items, but it is being reported that there are scarcity of Oral Saline, Water Purifying Tablets and Antibiotics etc. Immediate action is necessary to increase the production and supply of these essential medical items by the pharmaceutical industries, voluntary organizations and involvement of paramedics and the doctor�s organizations to get those made available to the relief shelters and camps.

Moreover, the most important area where the relief distribution is getting hampered is due to lack of necessary numbers of water transports. The Government�s initiative is needed to make necessary mobilization of river transports from the Public and private sector so that relief reaches also in the areas, which are not accessible, by road. In this matter the unwise remark of the Finance Minister making discouraging effect on the initiatives of the NGOs is not expected at the time of national crisis where sense of cooperation should prevail.

It is apparent that 20-30% of funds allocated in the current Fiscal Year�s ADP has to get diverted into the programmes for flood damage rehabilitation initiatives. At this point of time it is not clear whether the donors are offering grants or debts for flood damage rehabilitation. It is most likely that the donors are more inclined in the publicity rather than putting their pledges on realistic terms.

In reality the donors would propose to divert a portion of the fund already pledged under 2004-05 ADP for flood damage rehabilitation schemes making it a separate component. Therefore it is not necessary for the Government also to give much importance on the additional debts if offered which is most unlikely but only consider those which come as Debt Relief Grants or pure grants for strengthening of flood disaster management and rehabilitation programmes. Without enhancing the size of the debt or the ADP already passed by the Parliament it would be rather more prudent to engage all effort to get 100% of the ADP implemented without falling short of a single Taka which is actually more important considering the past performance of not having got the full amount of ADP utilized last year, due to slackness of implementation initiatives.

A very important point, and indeed which looks alarming that, the interval period of years between two occurrences of severe floods are getting reduced. We have normal flooding in each year, but the abnormal flood occurs when heavy rainfalls are recorded in the West, North and the East happening simultaneously flooding all the three tributaries i.e. Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna with rise of water levels above danger levels, as well as, when this phenomenon gets associated with rise of water level in the bay due to lunar cycle or other reason like global warming.

The year lines of occurrences of this particular set of inter-related phenomenon with simulated characteristics as recorded in near past that caused severe flood are, 1955, 1974, 1988, 1998 and now in 2004. That shows the gaps are getting reduced in alarming rate. If this trend continues then in not very distant future we may have to experience severe flooding occurring in each of the years during monsoon.

This is an issue of environment, which calls for regional and international attention. This also calls for finding the reasons and identification of remedies alongwith intensification of technology and logistics for early warning systems. The research programme and its implementation shall not be useful if taken by Bangladesh alone in isolation. Obviously it needs regional as well as international consciousness and cooperation.

Bangladesh with a territory of 7% only of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin taking the burden of flow of 92% of flood water flowing through her when it is the result of rainfall occurring outside Bangladesh in an area 15 times larger than Bangladesh herself. Therefore, nonetheless, Bangladesh needs to take the initiative calling for regional and international cooperation to identify the problems, remedies and steps to cope up with recurrent disaster of flood or draught, which is impossible to avoid occurring so frequently due to change in climate patterns occurring globally.

A fair water-sharing programme including installation of early warning system on regional and international basis would call for construction of various infrastructures including storage facilities and modes of transportation for regulating the water flow as well for disaster managements.

Rehabilitation programmes against damaged crops, houses, roads, culverts, bridges, buildings and health care programmes to minimize risk of getting infected by water born diseases etc. following the flood, would be needing funds in higher proportion year after year of occurrences of floods, particularly if the interval of occurrences of severe flooding gets reduced at the rate being observed now from the above data, and then at that instance, it may become a recurrent national burden hampering the pace of development, hence it requires urgent calling for the need of early awareness seeking regional and international cooperation for combating the ill affects of the change of global climate.


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