Free, fair, transparent and credible Election: Bangladesh Heading Towards Political Violence and Civil War Abdul Momen

Bangladesh is heading towards a civil war. In one side of the war are those that believe in democracy, rule of law and secularism, and in the other side are those that believe in defrauding the election results through militancy and election engineering. The first group is composed of lawyers, intellectuals, writers, journalists, members of the civil societies and political groups that are pro-democracy and pro-rule of law. This group prefers separation of state and the religion.

This group of 14-party alliance is led by Sheikh Hasina, former Prime Minister (1996-2001) and a daughter of the founder of the country, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. In addition, another group of political leaders led by Dr. AQM B Chowdhury, a former President and Col Wali Ahmed, a former Minister that walked out of the Islamist coalition parties of Prime Minister Khaleda Zia (1991-96 and 2001-06) also joined Sheikh Hasina. Major General Anwarul Kabir Talukdar, until recently Energy Minister stated that his government led by Prime Minister Zia defrauded the nation over $10 billion only from the Energy Sector in the past 5 years and in protest, he resigned.

No wonder, until recently, Bangladesh was known as the most corrupt country as per the Transparency International, an international corruption watchdog. However, good news is that after consecutive 5 years in a row, this is the 1st time that Haiti and Iraq superceded Bangladesh in corruption. As per Bangladeshi economists, nearly 75% of all its foreign aid and assistance amounting to over $37 billion either has been misused or looted.

The other warring group is composed of Islamic and leftist militants plus pro-Pakistan elements that rocked the nation with bomb blasts and terrorism, and mastermind repeated target killing of over 1,500 people. It maimed nearly 20,000 and imprisoned over half a million under various pretexts. This group killed 800 extra judiciously and its coalition partner vows to establish Sharia Law ending Western type democracy in Bangladesh.

This second group is led by Begum Khaleda Zia, and her son Tariq Zia plus their hand-picked President and Chief of the Care-taker Government, Dr. Iazuddin Ahmed, a 76-year old heart patient. Begum Zia is the widow of General Ziaur Rahman who emerged as a �strong man� in the nation�s 1st military coup in 1975 in which founder President Sheikh Mujib and his entire family members except two were mercilessly murdered. Gen. Zia allowed the murderers let go free.

Begum Zia has formed a 4-party alliance composing mostly Islamists and anti-liberation forces that were opposed to Bangladesh�s independence in 1971. Her main advisers are former leftist/ communist leaders that had good link with China. In fact, she developed a very good rapport with the People�s Republic of China. She masterminded her support by being anti-India and pro-Islam. Pakistan is her best support followed by Saudi Arabia.

Bangladesh Election: A History of Manipulated Results

Bangladesh has a history of �doctored elections� that started with her husband, General Ziaur Rahman. When he usurped state powers and became the Chief Martial Law Administrator and the President, he arranged a nation-wide voting in which �he was the only candidate� and he obtained 99% votes. As international opinion was not favorable, he asked his officials to arrange less than 99% votes in the subsequent elections and that was done. He received 88% in 1981 Presidential election as per his desire. Thus �a tradition of voting fraud� started in Bangladesh and generally, corrupt government officials are the major vehicle of such doctored elections.

In 1991, through a mass upsurge, the military government of general H M Ershad was toppled. With a view to have �free, fair, non-partisan and credible� elections, Bangladesh adopted a unique system known as �Non-partisan Care-taker government�. Under this system, after the expiry of 5-year term of an elected government, a non-partisan interim government would be formed for 90-days comprising one Chief Advisor (CA) and 10 Advisors. Their main function is to present a �non-partisan, free, fair, non-violent and credible� election to the nation. As per Constitution, the CA must be a non-partisan person. 1st preference for this post is for the immediate past retired Chief Justice of the nation�s highest court. If he/she is not available, then sincere efforts would be made to have a non-partisan individual to be appointed as the Head of the Caretaker government. Under such system, the nation conducted three elections, one in 1991, another in 1996 and third one in 2001. In the case of the 3rd one, the CA was Justice Latifur Rahman. He was morally corrupt. As he presented a debatable election in 2001 for which the winning party provided him some fortune including a free house, therefore, the Opposition parties wanted an improvement in their Caretaker government system by making necessary reforms. They demanded that the election process be transparent and fair. As against their demands, the Khaleda Zia government made the system more controversial. Now the future of the Caretaker government is at stake.

In order to defraud and doctor the election results, Mrs. Zia appointed partisan people at the nation�s Election Commission (EC) that is responsible for conducting the upcoming elections. The EC created a �voter list� that included over 14 million �ghost voters� and it appointed over 16,000 election officials that are committed �jehadis� with no moral scruples. In addition, the EC excluded in its Voter list the Opposition Party activists and their sympathizers plus it excluded over 10 million of the nation�s minority groups mostly Hindus, Christians and the Buddhists.

The Causes of Current Conflict

The Opposition parties challenged such faulty voter list in the nation�s highest court and the Court gave the verdict in their favor. But unfortunately, the government and the EC did not comply the Court verdict. Instead, Mrs. Zia replaced the judges and appointed 29 new judges from its party cadres. In addition, she changed the retirement age of the judges with a view to appoint her own party-executive whom she made a Chief Justice (K. M. Hasan) to be the next Chief of the Caretaker government in 2006. The opposition opposed such moves and demanded a �level playing filed� for a free and fair election.

As the government refused, the opposition parties started a nation-wide movement in which nearly 40 were killed and over 10,000 wounded. Violence erupted and it basically paralyzed the country. It cut off the nation�s capital Dhaka from the rest of the country. Under the situation, K. M. Hasan expressed his inability to be the Chief Advisor. When he was unavailable, instead of following the steps outlined in the Constitution, President Dr. Iazuddin Ahmed, a Begum Zia appointee unilaterally usurped all powers and declared himself as a CA plus President. He appointed a 10 member Advisory Council. The opposition halted its movement and submitted 11-point demands for ensuring a �free, fair, transparent and credible election� giving Dr. Ahmed an opportunity to be neutral. All foreign governments that are partners of Bangladesh development including the U. S. and the EU applauded such compromising move of the opposition parties.

Although nearly 3-weeks have passed and reportedly all the newly appointed Advisors unanimously agreed to replace the most controversial individuals for example, the Chief Election Commissioner MA Aziz and his 3 associates, Dr. Ahmed, the Chief Advisor and President is still reluctant to take any step that might weaken Begum Zia�s election set up. Moreover, Begum Zia threatened that if the Caretaker government takes steps to dislodge her set up, it would be a Constitutional violation and they would resist. As the Caretaker government failed to reform the EC or as failed to take any step yet to prove its neutrality, there is possibility that the opposition parties would resume their nationwide mass movement for a �free, fair, transparent and credible� election in January 2007.

President and CA with the support of the 4-party Islamist alliance may do its best to foil the movement and therefore, a clash is imminent. He also alerted the nation�s army. However, the U. S. Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Richard Boucher advised the Bangladesh army not to usurp powers. Whether or not the nation�s army refuses to take powers, violence and street fighting may erupt between the pro-Khaleda Islamists and the pro-democracy activists. The Islamists are well armed and well funded with illegal money and more importantly, they have the jehadi spirit. However, the opposition activists are numerous and they have the moral support of the nation. Under such a situation, if a consensus is not achieved quickly, this nation of 147 million is likely to suffer, suffer badly---economically, socially and politically. Can an impoverished country like Bangladesh sustain such uncertainty and loss?

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*Dr. Abdul Momen, a professor of economics and business management, Boston, USA