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The sick man of Asia is steadily moving from bad to worse Published on April 01, 2006 On February 25, Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo announced that the authorities uncovered a plot to topple her democratically-elected government and replace it with a civil-military junta. Arroyo, who has survived at least two coup attempts and numerous other crises during her five tumultuous years in power, said the plan was to employ rallies, timed to coincide with the 20th anniversary of the 1986 rebellion, in calling for civilian support. This and the consequent declaration of the state of emergency in the country serve as fresh evidence that the Philippines, which is often described as Asia�s sick man, is moving from bad to worse and is still far from stability. Two decades after the so-called People�s Power revolt that ended president Ferdinand Marcos� dictatorial regime and re-established democratic rule, the political environment became more fractured. There have been endless intrigues, with traditional elites continuing to hold on the reigns of finance and power, the poor remaining poor, soldiers dying in battles against communist or Muslim rebels, and the country�s economy continuing to falter with much dependence on remittances from overseas workers. As a result, questions have been raised about the viability of liberal democracy in a country like the Philippines, where people are �prone to loyalty towards personalities rather than institutions or ideals�, according to former president Fidel Ramos�s sister, Leticia Shahani. Many among the elite are now of the opinion that democracy is not a prescription for the Philippines� economic progress or political stability. The alternative, however, may lead to nothing but isolation and further economic damage. In an international environment characterized by promoting institutional democracy and disapproving regime change through military coups, it would be difficult for a military or authoritarian regime to win the recognition and support of global and regional powers. The Philippines has a long history of coups and mutinies since Marcos was pushed from power in February 1986. Marcos�s successor Corazon Aquino, for example, survived at least five coup attempts during her six-year term in office. In almost all the cases, coup attempts were carried out by junior officers, backed by opposition figures and retired generals, initiated in the heart of the business district of Makati, and justified by corruption allegations. In all cases also there were rumours swirling of a plot ahead of the actual attempt with accusatory fingers being always pointed to Gregorio Honasan. The latter, a veteran from the 1986 rebellion, had instigated several coups in the late 1980s and gone into hiding for sometime before he went into politics. The recent plot, however, differ from the previous ones in two aspects. First, it was engineered by various elements from both the left and right. According to official sources, the conspiracy was a result of an alliance that included junior officers, retired generals, resigned ministers, communist rebels, and members of the political opposition and some non-government organizations, including the corruption-tainted former president Joseph Estrada�s supporters. Some reports have also mentioned that Aquino and Ramos knew about the plot or at least would not mind it. Aquino, still a popular and respected figure despite her poor achievement while in office, has repeatedly urged Arroyo to �make the supreme sacrifice by resigning�. Ramos, whose six-year term from 1992 to 1998 was characterized by relative political calm and notable economic progress, has also demanded on several occasions that she step down, calling her �small-minded and self-centered�. Second, the plot was said to be a response not only to increased graft and corruption but also to Arroyo�s interference in the vote count in the 2004 presidential election. To many Filipino groups and individuals, she has lost her legitimacy, first by her husband and eldest son�s involvement in a nationwide gambling syndicate and second by her involvement in vote-rigging. But Arroyo, a US-educated economist and the daughter of late president Diosdado Macapagal, believes that she is the best person to lead the nation through economic and social reforms and is strongly convinced that she has right on her side. The coup attempt also seemed to be a reflection of the mounting grievances of junior officers from combat units. It was said that these officers have been dissatisfied with being on the front lines battling communist and Muslim insurgencies or fighting the Abu Sayyaf pirate gang while their commanders grow rich on cash dispensed by politicians in Manila. Arroyo�s response has been that the military must stay out of politics regardless of the situation. But her opponents say she has little credibility when it comes to defining the military�s role. Arroyo herself came to office in 2001 with the backing of the military.
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