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Shouldn�t the CEC Resign ? (Part 2) Published on June 04, 2006 Continued from Part-1 ...Analysis of the fake voter list, prepared by ECBefore we analyse the doctored voter list prepared by Justice MA Aziz and his team, let us have some figures of the last few years of total population of the country and corresponding voters� list on the basis of which previous elections were held. As we stated above the number of voters in the draft list = 91,314,000 Male voters: 46,864,302 Female: 44,450,290 Population in the year 2001(according to the census report) = 129,200,000 Number of voters in the last general election (2001): 7 4,660,443 Percentage of voters of the total population (2001): 57.78 (~58)
On the basis of the above figures the last most eventful election of 2001 was held. Table 1 showing population & corresponding voters
This is to be noted that since 1970, there were major updating of voter lists as many as seven times in the years 1973,1976,1983,1988,1990,1995 and 2000. Another reshuffle of voter list was done by the EC supervised by CEC Sadek in 2001 on the basis of which the last general election was held. Although on the basis of these updated voter lists including the voter list of 2001, elections were held no serious complains ever heard either from the wining parties or from the defeated parties. Only in recent times late president Zia�s son Tareq, assistant secretary (grade 1) of BNP and some Jamati leaders remarked that voter list of 2001 contained more than 6500,000 (sixty five lakhs) fake voters. See foot note 5 above. But this time the Aziazian voter list has crossed even the limit of 2001 for which it has been turned down by the general public, all opposition political parties and the representatives of the civil society. We will come to this point later on.
The increase pattern of number of voters over different periods
We further note that rate of increase of voters in different period of time is as follows (see table 2).
Table2 showing rate of increase of voters (R%) over different periods
The increase of voters from 1970 to 1973 i.e. in three years 19.42 % (R ~ 6.5 %) is simply a fantastic figure, and in no way could be tenable. This means the number of voters recorded in the year 1973 is rather faulty. Again the voters from 60,141,876 in 2000 increased to 74,669,443 in 2001 i.e. in less than one year the increase of voters is 14,518,567 (R ~ 24 %) is simply unimaginable. The number of voters shown in 2001 seemed to be very inflated and is therefore unreliable. Any estimation on the basis of voters in 2001 would be foolish. Only reliable figures are in the last column with R values 3.6, 1.41, 1.49 during the periods (1973-1983), (1983-1995), (1995 �2000) respectively although I have serious reservation accepting the number of voters as 35.2 millions in the year 1973 and hence I doubt the reliability of R vale as 3.6. So any calculation on the basis of voters recorded in 1973 and 2001 would be erroneous and give fantastic result as has been reflected in the table.
The rate of increase of voters with R ~ 1.4 -1.49 % seems to be quite reliable and tallies more or less with trend of rate of increase of population (R ~ 1.65 � 1.52 %).
Before we proceed further let us have a glance over the population growth rate of Bangladesh as reflected in different census reports. We again put it in tabular form.
Table2 showing growth rate of population (R%) over different periods
The above table shows that, if the census were carried on faithfully, the growth rate reaches highest peak during the period 1961 � 1981 (20 years) R ~ 3 %. It is also seen that R assumes a maximum value of 4 % in the smaller period of 4 years (1970-1974) following the liberation war. The sudden growth rate is rather unexplainable whose cause may lie in the socio economical conditions obtaining in post independent Bangladesh. Question may be raised- was the census carried out faithfully and utmost reliability? The figure R then showed significant decline arriving to a minimum value R ~ 1.65 � 1.53 % over the period 1991 � 2001. We may accept this growth rate as current one that may be applied in estimating population in future time over a small time period.
What should be the population in 2006 On the basis of our recent trend of growth rate (R ~ 1.65 - 1.53 %), population in the year 2006 may be estimated as lying between 140,216,598 to 139,185,000. On the other hand according to government�s own economic review report of 2005 reveals that the current population growth rate is R ~ 1.48 %. On the basis of those data we present the projected population in 2006 in the following table. Table3 Projected population in the year 2006
In any case population in the current year cannot exceed 140 millions.
Projected voters in the year 2006. Last column of The table 1 gives the value of what percentage of total population becomes voters over different periods. The factor K ranges from 48 % to maximum value ~ 58 %. It is noted that only in the year 2001, the K value assumes ~ 58 %, otherwise the value lies in the range of 48 to 53. We have already put forward arguments to reject the number 58%. The average value of K over the years from 1970 to 2000 is 49.7 which may be accepted as ~ 50 %. On this basis, the number of voters assuming the current population being 140 millions could be in the range of 70,108,000 to 69,693,000. If we use the growth rate of population as 1.48, number of will be still less. So we may say that the projected voters in 2006 should not exceed 71 millions.
On the other hand if we accept 1.5 % as the rate of growth of voters during the period 1995-2000, the projected voters is found to be 65,761,720 i.e. around 66 millions. This is quite comparable with the above figures given above.
Our CEC and his team managed to increase the voters to a fantastic figure of 91,314,000, a little over 91 millions. Even if we take the number of projected voters in 2006 as 71 millions, then one may genuinely ask where did the excess of voters to the tune 21 millions come from ? Surely the EC and its chief executive justice Aziz owes an explanation. If we assume that Azizian figure of 91m is right then one has to presume that since the last census the number of new adult voters (18 years or above) would be above 31 millions from 2000 to 2006, if we assume no significant immigrants settled in Bangladesh over the period in question. Hence rate of increase of adult population (A) turns out to be 8.6 %, a figure one cannot rely on. On the other hand Table 2 shows that normal adult population growth may be around A ~1.5 %.
What should be the population of Bangladesh according CEC figure ? One may genuinely ask if the Azizian figure of voters (91m) is assumed valid then what should be the population of Bangladesh in the current year ? Let us try to answer the question. As we have said earlier from the anlaysis of trend of voters-population ratio, we see that voters in a particular year seems to be K ~ 50 % of the total population. And only in the year 2001 the ratio has risen to ~ 58 % which we have rejected as unreliable. If we assume K factor as 50%, then the total population should be182.63 millions (!) in the year 2001.Even if we assume K factor as high as 58 %, the population shots upto157.41 millions. In such case what would be the growth rate of population from 2001, the year of last census? If the population of 2006 is as large as 182.63 millions as CEC Aziz wants us to accept, the growth rate turns out to be R = 8.27%. Do we have to believe it ? If the population is assumed 157.41 millions, R value is 4.37%, still a very large value compared to present accepted value by the demographers (R ~ 1.65 to 1.48). See table 3. The following little table gives the estimated growth rate as K factor varies from varies from 50 - 60 % on the basis of Azizian magic figure of 91.3 millions.
Table 4 Shows the projected population in the year at different values of K-factor Azizian magic figure M = 91.3m
All values of R in the last column are unbelievably large. Should we make further comments on the draft voter list prepared by CEC and his team including those two pro BNP election commissioners. I would only say that after what the HC directives said, and the fake voters list, prepared by the Election Commission, made public the CEC and the two members of the EC have forfeited the right to sit in the election commission any more.
Picture: A recent Bichitra Cartoon (whatever you say sir, we want voters for our alliance) In our next part we will try to see how the fake voter list was manipulated and the consequence of Supreme Court verdict on the issue.
(End of part 2) To be continued
+ The figures within bracket has been calculated using an exponential relation also used in demographic analysis. * In another source it is quoted as 107,993,000. I could not cross check 1 This figure was found from 1970 election proceedings. Prof. Ajoy K. Roy, is a reputed scientist and human rights activist from Bangladesh. |
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