Election Night projection
No flip-flop of states so far!  Kerry fan: hang in there!

A.H. Jaffor Ullah  

November 2, 2004, 8:30 p.m.


In my home, my two kids are glued to the TV watching the electoral vote counts as network TV is projecting the winners of states where they could call it based on partial poll results.  My eldest son who attends Yale University is still in Philadelphia area working for Kerry campaign.  He just called to tell us that he would be in Philadelphia for couple of hours.  I am however looking at the Yahoo Election 2004 Page where they are assigning each state one-by-one to either Kerry or Bush�s column.


Thus far, no surprise.  The states that are supposed to go to Bush�s column had ended up there and that is the case for Kerry too.  We knew before hand that Bush would beg more electoral votes in the early going.  Therefore, I am not concerned about his getting more electoral votes (170) as opposed to Kerry receiving 112 electoral votes.


A very interesting situation is brewing up in the state of Missouri (11 EV) and Arkansas (6 EV).  Will one of these states turn up for Kerry?  If that happens, then it will be a big surprise.  Therefore, lookout for the developments in these two states as night wore by.  The polltaker Zogby International has given these two states to Bush�s camp.  So far, Zogby�s prediction has played out real well.


The presidential race in the state of Colorado (9 EV) will be a cliffhanger tonight.  If that state eventually goes to Bush�s camp, then it will be okay but there is a every bit of chance that it may go for Kerry�s camp upsetting the Bush campaign.


The votes coming from upper Midwestern states Minnesota (10 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), Iowa (7 EV), Michigan (17 EV), and Ohio (20 EV) will be slow coming and that is where Kerry has to perform very well.  I am not so sure about the state of Ohio and most likely, we will not know right away for which side the state will go for.  However, I am assuming that the rest of the Midwestern states will go for Kerry.


The state of New Mexico (5 EV) and Nevada (5 EV) will be seesawing for both the candidates.  New Mexico will probably end up in Kerry�s column.  Nevada may surprise the political pundits.  Many people from California have moved to that state and they may vote in favor of Democratic ticket.  Therefore, look for a surprise there. Aside from this, the western states of Washington (EV 11), Oregon (7EV), and California (55 EV) will come under Kerry�s column and so will the state of Hawaii (4 EV).  The rest of the western states, such as Montana (3 EV), Utah (5 EV), Idaho (4 EV), and Alaska (3 EV) will go for Bush�s camp.  No surprise there.


So, where the battle for electoral votes will take place?  The answer is: in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Missouri, and Arkansas.  Altogether there are 63 electoral votes up for grabs.  The night is going to be long and there is an outside chances that we may not know all the results by tonight.  If however Kerry wins either Missouri or Colorado, and then wins either Ohio or Florida then the outcome may be a cliffhanger.


I am a realistic person.  I know that Kerry may come so close and still lose the election.  But my hopes are high.  Knowing how much time, energy, and financial resources Kerry campaign has spend in few key battleground states, the election will be decided by one of those key states such as Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.  If these states hold together for Kerry, then all will end according to the game plan.  Let us be patent and see how the electoral vote counts shape up. 


Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans , USA

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