A stunning win for Iranian hardliners Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah

A stunning win for Iranian hardliners

Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah

Published on February 13, 2007

"Iranians have chosen their next president. An obscure ex-military man who was appointed as mayor of Teheran only years ago made history backed by Iranï¿½s powerful clergies."

With a blazing speed, the Iranian authorities did the vote counting and declared the hardliner candidate, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was backed by the ruling clergies and Revolutionary Guard, the winner in the June 24 presidential election.

The election result came as a shock to many Iranians, never mind the rest of the world. The western press thought that Ahmadinejadï¿½s opponent, Akabar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was a two-term president in the nineties, would win the election because of his stature and his present-day worldview. But alas, the born-again reformist candidate who was repackaged by liberals in Iran could not cut the muster at this time.

At the last count Ahamadinejad, the mayor of Teheran, garnered 61.5% of the popular vote; on the other hand, Hashemi Rafsanjani only received 38.5%. This would be viewed as a landslide victory by the candidate supported by both Iranian clerics and military.

Now it is very clear that the alliance between ruling clerics and Iranian army has produced a formidable force. As long as this alliance lives, no reformist candidate could win in any future elections.

Iranian history will view Khatamiï¿½s two-term presidency as a mere aberration. Reformist movement is going to be dead and obsolete in this ancient land. Fridayï¿½s win by a hardliner politician in Iran spoke in volume the ground reality ï¿½ reformist movement is a thing of the past. Iran has already become mullahdom and make no mistake about it.

The outgoing president Mohammad Khatami tried in vain to institute reform in Iranian society. The clerics hated it so much that on February 20, 2004, in the parliamentary election, they booted out liberal parliamentarian members and replaced them with hardliner politicians. This time around, they chose a relatively young and novice politician as their favorite candidate, they rallied behind him, and the rest is history. The clerics have taken back the presidency from reformists. Quite a victory indeed!

A week before the runoff election Hashemi Rafsanjani garnered slightly more than 21% of the vote in the first election. Mayor Ahmadinejad came out second neck-to-neck. The three other hardliners received each 16-18% of the votes. If most of the votes received by hardliner candidates went for Mayor Ahmadinejad, then it makes a whole lot of sense as to why he came out victorious. The only reformist candidate, Mostafa Moin, received 14% of the votes and if those votes went for Rafsanjani on June 24 election, then Rafsanjani would receive 35% of the votes. The fact that he received 38.5% votes tells us that many reformists and liberals had abstained from voting.

Iranian civil rights leader Ms. Shirin Ebadi gave a clarion call to her followers to boycott the election because of the interference by the 12-member Guardian Council. Maybe her call for abstinence from the electoral process has resulted in less participation from the liberal voters. Right after the June 24 election Rafsanjaniï¿½s political aid Mr. Mani Alizadeh predicted that his candidate would lose the election by a wide margin because only 23 million of Iranï¿½s 47 million eligible voters have participated in this election. This would mean that only 49% of the voters have cast their votes in the runoff election. A week ago on June 17, 2005, about 63% of the voters turned up for voting.

Why then 13% of the voters who participated in the earlier election hardly 7 days ago had decided not to participate? The answer lies in the fact that many liberals did not believe that they had a real choice in this election. Since these voters did not show up in the runoff election, the second most vote getters, Mayor Ahmadinejad, had won the election.

A shrewd politician, Ahmadinejad, the 47-year-old mayor of the capital, campaigned as a champion of the poor, a message that resonated with voters in a country where some estimates put unemployment as high as 30 percent. He portrayed himself as a simple working man against Rafsanjani, who is a multimillionaire businessman belonging to Iranï¿½s ruling elite. From newspapersï¿½ description of this novice politician, I learned that the mayor of Teheran came from a humble background. His is a son of an illiterate worker who joined Iranianï¿½s Revolutionary Guard while he was in his twenties and fought against Saddamï¿½s army. His meteoric rise to power in Iran could be the subject matter for a fiction.

Ahmadinejadï¿½s message to Iranian voters was simple. Being a self-proclaimed fundamentalist he sought a return to the moral ï¿½purityï¿½ of the early years of the Islamic revolution (1979-1988), has also insisted freedom in Iran ï¿½is already beyond what could be imagined.ï¿½ His campaign took up the pocketbook issues.

Iran is facing a massive unemployment (about 30%). He promised to improve the economy, create jobs, etc. In contrast to that, Rafsanjani talked more about ideology and about the deterioration of relationship between Iran and the West. The common voters hardly give a damn about ideology and Iran-West feud. Therefore, it looks as if Ahmadinejadï¿½s simple message struck a chord amongst most ordinary Iranians. They came in droves to vote for him on June 24 and that made him a winner while surprising the most sophisticated Iranian political pundits.

The clerics in Iran are not fools. To whip up anti-American feeling amongst voters who were coming to the polling place where Mayor Ahmadinejad voted in Teheran they painted British, US and Israeli flags on the ground so voters could step on them. When the mayor came to cast his vote he was greeted by the chant of ï¿½Death to America!ï¿½

In 1979 when Iranï¿½s king, Reza Shah Pahlavi, was deposed by an alliance of Mullahs and socialists, Imam Khomeini coined the term ï¿½America, the Great Satanï¿½ and his followers would chant ï¿½Death to Americaï¿½ while taking America hostages from the U.S. Embassy. Thus, mere mention of the slogan ï¿½Death to Americaï¿½ brings a lot of emotion amongst Iranians.

What is going to happen in Iran, now that a hardliner politician is poised to take the control? One thing is for sure. Anti American feeling amongst Iranians will be on the rise. Mind you, Ahmadinejad won the election as he mentioned his dislike for America. The clerics will support him to whip up anti American sentiments in Iran. Ahmadinejad will probably favor the making of nukes. Not too long ago Iranï¿½s clergy told the West that Iran has every right to purify plutonium. The belligerency concerning making of the nuke will surely rise.

The reform movement instituted by outgoing president Mohammad Khatami will be put on a backburner as the nation makes a retrogressive journey, which many liberal Iranians call ï¿½ a move to the dark ages or yesteryears. Furthermore, Iranï¿½s clergies will restart a vilification campaign against Israel. In domestic front, we will see Iranï¿½s ruling clergies clamping on free mixing between men and women.

The West is not going to sit idle when Ahmadinejad takes power from Khatami. President Bush and his lieutenants such as Vice President Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld will all vilify Iran by saying that the nation has made a u-turn and heading towards extremism.

The above-mentioned scenarios will most likely play out. Iranians have made a choice and now they will pay a price. Less freedom and democracy is what is expected under the leadership of president-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In summary, Iranians have chosen their next president. An obscure ex-military man who was appointed as mayor of Teheran only years ago made history backed by Iranï¿½s powerful clergies. The same clergies have engineered the takeover of Iranï¿½s parliament on February 20, 2004 when Guardian Council barred over 2500 reformist candidates from taking part in the election.

This time around, the same clerics have engineered another coup. They are about to replace the reformist president Khatami who wanted to bring about change in Iran and make the nation move towards modernity. That movement will stop and in its place the nation will tread a path leading to nowhere but a shaï¿½ria based Utopia. Iranians will have to fasten their seatbelt because the ride to past could be bumpy.
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Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA