Placing wreath of
roses and marigolds for unknown martyrs begins
officially the celebration of Independence Day of
Bangladesh. Our history, geography, culture, language
and literature have created images and sounds to
describe the beauty of this nation.
Bangladesh
today is not as it ought to be.
We have been shaken
up too much by leadership, economy and fundamentalism,
where common people are searching for minimum life of
security and achieving unity. Now many esoteric facts
are related with the name of
Bangladesh.
The
country is divided by class interests and that without
social transformation. Money
circulates freely and the leading masses are
insufficiently deferential. One can glimpse the
socio-economical difference on the streets. The system
is working according to the hierarchy based on power,
which is relatively less organized. The power of new
money matters because of snobbery isn�t just a social
entertainment. Politicians, various lobbyists in the
name of business organization, government officials
believe the pecking order has determined who runs
things. Poor remained poor and levels of government on
education and other services are pitiful.
The
total range of national budget for 2005-06 is Taka
64,383 Crore, which is 15.7% elevated than of revised
budget of 2004-05.
What is the
Bangladesh
government fiscal and monetary plan? If any one wants
to get something done, there is easy math that is the
complex business of the exchange of favours starts. It
has a great deal more weight. A new class, very small in
number, of capitalist barons, is unabashedly plundering
the nation�s wealth. There is no anti-monopolistic law
to prevent the abuse of privilege. People want more
logical talk; they have problems and want answers.
Bangladesh
relations with
India
are very important economically, geographically and
strategically.
The
water-sharing,
huge trade deficit and terrorism are the main obstacles
that the relations have remained stalled for many years.
The scary word �Farakka� has been a thorn to keep
Bangladeshi does remain
India
bashing. Khaleda Zia�s recent visit to
India
can be regarded as confidence building measures between
two neighbours. I have no idea what measures taken by
Bangladesh
to
India
that things are progressing in the right direction;
moreover,
Bangladesh
itself does not have much leverage in influencing the
India
government policy.
President
Bush's recent visit to
India
elevated them as a global leader.
The challenge for
Bangladesh
is how to develop a range and pattern of economic
relations with
India
that will help common people to achieve a high rate of
economic growth. It is not
feasible to gain cent percent access for Bangladeshi
products and lifting of all kinds of para-tariff and
non-tariff barriers in reciprocation of
Bangladesh's
market opening policy to Indian goods and services.
In reality the Non-tariff barriers are there not by
design, but by default. In fact nowadays India has
everything in terms of commerce, science and technology
and when Bangladesh have resources, then why they wait
for expensive help from the West?
Chinese
threat is real to developing countries, though there is
also potential for developing countries to cooperate
with
China,
to improve their industries, and get access to cheaper
inputs.
Zia's government started out with a strategy of looking
towards its East.
China
has for the first time surpluses
India
in exports to
Bangladesh
providing goods worth Tk 32.13 billion in the first
quarter of the current fiscal. We had a trade deficit of
Tk 104.52 billion with
China
between July 2004 and June 2005.
Wen Jiabao wants to show
Bangladesh
that it is interested in reducing the trade deficit.
They have decided to allow 84 Bangladeshi goods
duty-free access to Chinese market under the Asia
Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA), which was originally
scheduled to take effect from July 2006.
China
is working hard to intensify trade relationship to gain
tremendous strategic advantage for them. They start
import Bangladeshi commodities in large quantities under
the preferential trade policies and promote Chinese
investment in the country. It is a preferential tariff
arrangement that tries to promote intra-regional trade
through mutually agreed concession exchange by the
member countries, which are
Bangladesh,
China,
India,
Sri
Lanka,
Republic of Korea
and
Laos.
Bangladesh
having an abundant cheap labour force is a comparative
advantage over others.
Economical point of view there is always a problem in
every society of scarcity.
Bangladesh
economic management requires substantial improvement in
both micro and macro economics with intelligent Fiscal
and Monetary policy. For the master planning there are
many constraints to get optimum output. Main factors are
political instability, influence, lack of mental
confidence and the accuracy of data. Though our economy
mostly follows command system; however, market system
has dominant influence. To measure output and income GDP
deflator and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are used to get
rid of inflation.
It is
always doubtful about the accuracy of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) specially the consumer expenditure.
Perhaps always GDP
figures or National accounts will not be a good measure
about
Bangladesh
economic well being? The GDP figures give no indication
of the distribution of the goods. When the GDP goes up
it may be 10% of our population is a lot better off,
while 90% of people may be worse off. It is worse if GDP
goes up by 5% with the 10% increase of population. Do we
know exact indexes needed for appreciable development?
Approximately 52% of the
Bangladesh
budget is financed by own domestic resources and 48%
from foreign resources. Present situation suggests that
the Bangladesh Bank needs to maintain a tight monetary
policy for discouraging imports of non-essential items
and curbing credit flow to the private sector. Interest
rate relative to the expected rate of profit, tight
monetary policy with political disturbances, lawlessness
and rise of fundamentalism fail to control the
inflation. Ultimately it accelerates the cost of
investment. Tata�s and
Abu Dhabi Group�s
decision to invest
US$2.5bn and US$1bn respectively are close to reach an
agreement with
Bangladesh.
We need more developed infrastructure with proper right
to work law.
Khaleda�s attempts to
boost the law enforcement by forming Rapid Action
Battalion has gone far to find kingpins and
majlis-e-sura�s hide out but not measurably reducing
crime or corruption. Until the government addresses our
structural weakness the question of its inclination east
or west is irrelevant.
The High Court
Division of the Supreme Court has no complete set of
rules has been framed on the 35 years of the country�s
independence except the previous one.
Whosever in the
government, can violate High court order, perhaps can do
anything they want and only opposition has to follow the
existing rules. Get rid of its present political
coalition and practices, otherwise our optimism about
the country�s future will be jeopardized.
Momtaz Ahmed
Toronto,
Canada
